24 November 2012

Calculating Uncertainty


It took me a lot longer than I thought it would to write this paper. I wanted a gentle introduction to simulation with SIPs and it turned out that gentle is not easy. So it's 20 pages with lots of examples and charts and two Excel workbooks to go along with the text. The workbooks aren't necessary but they help.
In many ways, the essence of Probability Management is how to do probabilities by counting stuff – and having a computer do the counting. This monograph focuses on that.

Update:
Now available as a paperback and as a Kindle e-book.

Pdf format and Excel workbooks:
http://smpro.ca/sipmath

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