If you want to build systems that aren't easily hacked, this is a good article with a great presentation embedded in it.
29 December 2011
22 December 2011
Probability Management improves our odds of success with realistic estimates and attainable targets.
How much will it cost?
How long will it take?
This kind of question doesn't have just one answer; it has a whole bunch of answers, each with its own probability of turning out to be right.
When we pluck one number out of the bunch to use as a target, we're also choosing our probability of success - the probability that we can meet or beat that target.
04 December 2011
Ontario's Lotto 649 lottery involves a draw of 7 different numbers between 1 and 49. Each ticket has 6 different numbers from the same range. Prizes are awarded for various coincidences. This is a good excuse to do some 'statistics by simulation.'
Here's the challenge: What's the probability that at least one number on a ticket will match one of the numbers drawn?