If you want to build systems that aren't easily hacked, this is a good article with a great presentation embedded in it.

## 29 December 2011

## 22 December 2011

### Probability Management for Projects

### Probability Management improves our odds of success with realistic estimates and attainable targets.

## How much will it cost?

How long will it take?

This kind of question doesn't have just one answer; it has a whole bunch of answers, each with its own probability of turning out to be right.

When we pluck one number out of the bunch to use as a target, we're also choosing our probability of success - the probability that we can meet or beat that target.

## 04 December 2011

### Counting Stuff – Statistics by Simulation

Ontario's Lotto 649 lottery involves a draw of 7 different numbers between 1 and 49. Each ticket has 6 different numbers from the same range. Prizes are awarded for various coincidences. This is a good excuse to do some 'statistics by simulation.'

Here's the challenge: What's the probability that at least one number on a ticket will match one of the numbers drawn?

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